OKBET SPORTS BETTING NEWS – SUN VS ACES
Suns vs Aces Odds
|Moneyline||+165 / -200|
|Time||9 p.m. ET|
|Odds via OKBET SPORTS BETTING. Get up-to-the-minute WNBA odds here.|
Now that Game 1 of the WNBA Finals is over, let’s take a look at how each team did and see if we need to rethink or double down on some of our predictions for the rest of the series.
One game is never enough to completely change a process, but we now know a lot more about how these two teams’ rosters work in the playoffs than we did before the series started. (The two teams played each other in the playoffs in 2020, but this year will be very different for many reasons.)
Let’s dig in.
This article is: 79-59-3 (18.7 percent ROI)
This is what the Action Network app plays: (7.5 percent ROI)
Even though they didn’t win, the Sun did pretty well in Game 1. They kept the game dirty and with few goals, which is what they like to do. They held the Aces to their fewest points in a game all season, and at the end of the game, they missed a chance to force overtime. Not a bad beginning.
“Close but no cigar” won’t help Curt Miller and the Sun win the series, so what needs to change for them to do so?
The biggest thing that stood out to me in Game 1 was the difference in free throws. The Aces went to the line 19 times, which was pretty close to their average for the season. The Sun, on the other hand, only went there five times. This season, these two teams were second and third in the WNBA in terms of how many free throws they tried per game. However, the Sun were better at keeping their opponents from going to the free throw line.
Even though it was only by three points, that 14-attempt difference is still going to stand out in a close game. Alyssa Thomas, Jonquel Jones, and Briona Jones all played well for the Sun, but they only tried three free throws between them. A’ja Wilson, on the other hand, tried 14 by herself. Part of that could be home cooking, but the loud and record-breaking crowd can’t explain it all.
On offense, the Sun need to be more aggressive about drawing contact, and when they lose, they can’t just foul Wilson as often. Both of these goals are easier to say than to do, but if the Sun wants to steal a game in Las Vegas, they will have to be done.
Las Vegas Aces
Game 1 was mission accomplished for Las Vegas. If the Aces win each of their home games, they will win the series. I know, this is breakthrough reporting.
In all seriousness, the Aces will not mind playing in mud if they can win like they did on Sunday.
Rarely is a team able to out-grind the Playoff Sun, therefore this is my most important conclusion from Game 1. As someone who entered this series on the Sun’s side (because to odds that seemed longer than they should have been, which appeared correct in a tightly contested Game 1), this is somewhat unsettling. These dirty games frequently favor Connecticut.
Aside from this, there were a few more lessons learned by the Aces that can be applied to the rest of the series. First, let us examine the shot dispersion. Chelsea Gray led the squad in field goal attempts, and I’ve given up attempting to catch the Gray regression train on player props. She now has sufficient volume to withstand any decline in accuracy.
On the other hand, Plum only attempted nine shots for the game and, most significantly, made only one. Prior to the series, I had not been targeting unders on the point total for the Plum, but given the Sun’s superior three-point defense, it makes sense as an angle. If her line hovers around 19.5 once more, the under could be a decent wager.
As a last player prop wager, despite the fact that she is coming off a 24 and 11 performance, I’m going to stick with Wilson unders. She (probably) won’t return to the line 14 times in the next game, and she only attempted 11 field goals (though she would have had more if she hadn’t been fouled on multiple occasions). Hopefully, her point total will be around 23.5 once more, as I will bet against it.
Taking a step back, the team must be thrilled with what Dearica Hamby has provided. Even after returning from injury, she was conspicuously absent from this postseason, despite the fact that she has been an integral part of this team for many years. However, in Game 1 she was instrumental in a dramatic run for the Aces in the fourth quarter, and she matches up well with a tough Connecticut club.
So, a few aspects of my evaluation of this series have altered, but a great deal has remained the same. As a result, I find value on the Sun to win the series (much longer now — +450 at BetMGM, or +800 to win in exactly five games at BetRivers), and I also like the under.
I’m giving up on Gray unders, but I’m double down on Wilson unders (just because the line is so high—no insult to the MVP). As a reminder, I should always track my picks in the Action Network app for these player prop bets, as the odds might change rapidly. Getting Wilson’s rebounding prop at less than 11.5 as opposed to 10.5 proved decisive in Game 1.
Sun to win the World Series (+450 or to win in exactly five games +800) | A’ja Wilson Unders.
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