OKBET SPORTS BETTING NEWS – PGA TOUR 2022-23with Outright Value,
The PGA TOUR 2022-23 season begins this week at the Fortinet Championship, if you can believe it. When it may seem counterintuitive to provide season preview content while the previous season is still in progress, it would be irresponsible not to offer at least a broad perspective on how to approach the betting market.
So, here is the concept: I will list five players for whom I believe there is consistent outright value relative to their various talent levels.
That doesn’t mean we should play the following players every week, but their prices are frequently lengthier than they should be.
Let’s jump right into it, beginning with a player I will surely face this week in the season opener.
Theegala has seen odds as high as 250/1 for the Farmers Insurance Open and Players Championship and as low as 20/1 for the 2022 Masters (3M Open). That makes a modicum of sense, at least.
Theegala was a jack-of-all-trades as an amateur and saw steady improvement in his first season at the highest level, so the inverse correlation between his results and the odds should come as no surprise. However, not everything about it is coherent.
After opening at 20/1 at the 3M (where he finished in a tie for fourth on the pre-tournament board), his odds went as follows: 35/1 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, 125/1 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, and 80/1 at the BMW Championship.
The obvious conclusion is that the betting markets have given Theegala a higher weighting in races against smaller fields while continuing to provide higher odds in races against better competition.
But you could say that about any player. In this case, a recency bias in response to public funds may be more appropriate.
After a T3 finish at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, where he was 200/1 to make the cut, his next odds were at 100/1. After starting at 150/1 for the Travelers Championship and finishing second, he dropped to 25/1 for his following race.
In other words, what should we take away from this? Even after a few of bad results, when the public has gone off the bandwagon, he still possesses value in most events, especially against stronger fields, against whom he can undoubtedly win.
Remember that the purpose of this article is not to introduce you to players you have never heard of, but rather to introduce you to players who are still mostly overlooked by the mainstream market.
Wise, a former NCAA champion who has been on the PGA TOUR since the 2017–18 season, is now ranked 37th in the world and has already won on the tour, claiming the AT&T Byron Nelson title in his debut year.
You’ve seen him play and have probably even wagered on him previously, so you know what I’m getting at. The other part of the argument is that you must keep going.
Wise improved his score in every major category this past season, finishing 21st in strokes gained. That’s probably the strongest indicator of how well someone did overall, as he bested players like Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth, and Viktor Hovland.
Though his lone real championship challenge came at the Memorial Tournament, where he finished second, I have faith that his regular play at a top level will eventually produce better results. Guys like Will Zalatoris and Matt Fitzpatrick, who finished roughly in the same spot as Wise the year before, follow Wise into the next season, and I anticipate the same trend.
Regular readers and listeners of my work know that my enthusiasm for Mitchell’s game is almost fanboy-like, but that’s just because I think he’s that talented.
If Wise’s total strokes gained number sounds impressive, it’s important to remember that Mitchell was ranked one spot higher than him, even though their games aren’t exactly the same.
Even though the graduate of the University of Georgia scored well in every major category, he’s not as well-rounded. But that doesn’t mean his game is bad.
Mitchell was fourth in strokes gained off the tee last year, behind only Jon Rahm, Cameron Young, and Rory McIlroy. The year before, Mitchell was 11th in this category. I’m sure he has what it takes to win anywhere and at any time, but there are some courses where hitting a driver long and straight will help him more than others.
From what we’ve seen, the oddsmakers don’t necessarily cut his odds at these places, so bet on him.
If those numbers aren’t enough to get you excited, there’s also the intangible. Every time I talk to Mitchell, he sounds like the most sure of himself person on the planet. I often get Gary Woodland vibes from him, as if he knows something the rest of us don’t and maybe he’ll let us in on the secret at some point.
Mitchell’s work with Bob Rotella has helped him a lot in a mental sport like golf, and I expect it to pay off with a win or two this season.
If the first three names on this list did not come as a complete surprise, the last two should.
For most of the season, NeSmith wasn’t exactly knocking on the door of a title, but there’s reason to believe he can win at some point. For the purposes of this exercise, I prefer players who excel in one aspect of the game, and ball-striking is a significant one.
NeSmith, a South Carolina native, is on a Corey Conners-like trajectory with his iron play, ranking 30th in strokes gained on approach shots and 31st in greens in regulation last season.
I like him because, with a high iron play baseline, he’s essentially just a solid putting performance away from contending for a victory. That’s easier said than done for a player who ranked 145th on the greens, but NeSmith, like Keegan Bradley or Russell Henley in the past, is a guy who only needs to improve on one aspect of his game to compete.
We can probably lump David Lipsky, Adam Svensson, and Aaron Rai into the same category, as all three were in the top 50 in ball-striking.
This one is based on the same idea as the NeSmith play, but it uses a different set of skills.
While the first one does it with good iron play, Clark is known for being good with the driver and the putter, which are the two best clubs in his bag.
Last season, he was 56th in strokes gained off the tee but fourth in driving distance, showing some power that shouldn’t be overlooked. In putting, he came in 31st.
You could say that iron play is the most important factor in success most of the time, but the driver and putter might be even more important.
For example, Rory McIlroy was the only player to be in the top 20 in both strokes gained off the tee and putting last season.
I’m not saying that Clark could be the next Rory McIlroy—not even close—but I am saying that he has some of the same skills that can help him be successful. This is especially true during a few weeks of the season when driving and putting are more important than iron play.
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