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Angels vs Guardians Odds
| Angels Odds | +130 |
| Guardians Odds | -150 |
| Over/Under | 8 (-105/-115) |
| Time | 6:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via okbet sports. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. |
José Suarez, who is 24 years old, looks like he could be an ace pitcher for the Los Angeles Angels in the future. He has a 3.68 xERA, a 3.77 ERA, and a 1.26 WHIP right now. All of these numbers are solid and show that he has done almost exactly what his peripherals say he should have done. He also has a Hard-Hit Rate in the 62nd percentile, which gives him an edge over the other players.
On Tuesday, he will play against prospect Cody Morris and the Cleveland Guardians. The Guardians have the worst Hard-Hit Rate and seem to have blundered their way to the top of the American League Central, which is not very strong. With a 3.00 ERA in six innings pitched, Morris has only played in two games. In those two starts, his xERA was 6.02 and his walk rate was above 10%.
The Guardians have a better bullpen than the Angels, but the Angels have a few pitchers who can throw behind Suarez, and he will go deeper in this game than Morris. Since July 26, every time Suarez has started, he has played well for at least five innings.
Since neither team is great at hitting, go with the Angels because they have the better starting pitcher. The only thing to worry about is getting middle relief to the back of the bullpen.
Suarez Provides the Angels with an Early Advantage
Suarez should be positioned favorably against Cleveland’s lineup. First, he will match the Guardians’ slow-hit balls with an above-average Chase Rate (74th percentile) and fastball velocity of 92 miles per hour. This means he will limit any hard-hit balls from the middle of the Cleveland lineup (José Ramrez or Josh Naylor) to a reduced degree of contact.
Only Andrés Giménez, Oscar González, and José Ramrez have surpassed a.325 xwOBA against lefties in the last month for the Guardians. This indicates that the bottom of the Cleveland hitting order will struggle against Suarez’s pitches.
The majority of Cleveland’s success this season can be attributed to the starting rotation and a dominant bullpen. The lineup lacks strength, as Naylor and Steven Kwan have struggled against southpaws (sub-.260 xwOBA).
However, Los Angeles’ bullpen has a 4.84 xFIP since August 13, ranking them 29th in MLB. Ryan Tepera and Jimmy Herget are the only pitchers with an xFIP below 4.00, therefore Suarez must throw as deep as possible to win the game. It is possible, considering he has pitched at least six innings in three of his last five outings.
Can the Guardians Lead Their Elite Pitching Staff?
Morris has not shown much promise as an MLB pitcher. His plus-fastball, which rates in the 91st percentile for Spin Rate, resulted in 30 strikeouts across 15 and 13 innings in the Triple-A level. Against a pretty weak Angels lineup, he ought to generate some chases.
The Angels have somewhat greater power, led by Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, and Matt Thaiss, who all have an xwOBA of.355 or higher. Taylor Ward and Mike Ford have batting averages above.325, hence this is the majority of the lineup. This gives the Angels a slight advantage over the Guardians’ sloppy play.
Six members of the bullpen for Cleveland have xFIPs below 4.00. Emmanuel Clase is one of the top closers in the league, thus Los Angeles will need to score against Morris or middle relievers in order to advance runners.
Angels-Guardians Pick
Los Angeles has the superior and more proven pitcher on the mound, since Morris has yet to demonstrate much command on an MLB mound. The Angels walk infrequently, but they have a few batters capable of drawing walks. Suarez must remain in the game for an extended period of time to offset the effects of the Los Angeles bullpen. If he can do so, the Angels will likely win a close game. Reduce the score from +130 to 100.
Pick: Los Angeles Angels +130 | play to +100
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